Entrants

player deck
zhavier [Future]/Necromancy/Peace
FrozenStorm [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire
charnel_mouse [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood
codexnewb Miracle Grow
Bomber678 [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse
Akiata [Feral]/Anarchy/Strength
Nopethebard MonoWhite
CarpeGuitarrem MonoRed
Nekoatl [Future/Past]/Peace

Completed matches

Matchup plots

Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)

Deck only

Overall

Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.

Matchup tables

Deck-only

Overall

Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.

Nash equilibria for entrants

Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).

Mean Nash win rate

Deck-only mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.565
P2 0.435
Both 0.500

Overall mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.513
P2 0.487
Both 0.500

Mean Nash pick rate

Deck-only mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.329 0.178 0.381
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.179 0.090 0.134
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.101 0.123 0.126
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.085 0.090 0.102
[Future/Past]/Peace 0.039 0.230 0.099
Miracle Grow 0.100 0.093 0.065
MonoWhite 0.063 0.052 0.037
MonoRed 0.068 0.053 0.029
[Feral]/Anarchy/Strength 0.036 0.091 0.028

Overall mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
FrozenStorm 0.493 0.385 0.533
zhavier 0.270 0.530 0.428
charnel_mouse 0.069 0.016 0.024
Bomber678 0.086 0.026 0.011
codexnewb 0.067 0.023 0.003
Akiata 0.009 0.019 0.001
Nekoatl 0.000 0.002 0.000
CarpeGuitarrem 0.005 0.000 0.000
Nopethebard 0.000 0.000 0.000

Tournament & evaluation

Plots

Evaluation

forecast Brier score
always 5-5 0.250
model 0.067